Squirrels and Nuts

I had hope that the Giants could salvage the three-game series with a win today. But the Cards are a better team, so I wasn’t all that surprised when Pujols and company looked poised to win it.

Then a venerable blind squirrel came out to find a nut before the sun would set. This is a good reminder: Baseball is a game about percentages and lots of discrete events. In a small sample size, anything can happen. Today was a triumph of the small sample size. Mediocre has-beens do hit a few home runs, after all.

The other side of the statistics is that over a large sample size, we get more predictable results. Rich Aurilia is hitting about .200. The Giants are only one game over .500. Baseball Prospectus puts the odds of them making the postseason at about 9%. Sounds about right.

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