Squirrels and Nuts

I had hope that the Giants could sal­vage the three-game series with a win today. But the Cards are a bet­ter team, so I wasn’t all that sur­prised when Pujols and com­pa­ny looked poised to win it.

Then a ven­er­a­ble blind squir­rel came out to find a nut before the sun would set. This is a good reminder: Base­ball is a game about per­cent­ages and lots of dis­crete events. In a small sam­ple size, any­thing can hap­pen. Today was a tri­umph of the small sam­ple size. Mediocre has-beens do hit a few home runs, after all.

The oth­er side of the sta­tis­tics is that over a large sam­ple size, we get more pre­dictable results. Rich Auril­ia is hit­ting about .200. The Giants are only one game over .500. Base­ball Prospec­tus puts the odds of them mak­ing the post­sea­son at about 9%. Sounds about right.

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